Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #94568
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
7/5/2010 9:33:35 PM
Several interesting long and short plays going into this week:
Long Plays
KEY - scored 6/6 on the Connors filters, closed below the lower BB(20,2), gave a confirmation BUY on the BB(16,2.5) - close below the lower band on Thursday, then closed back inside the bands on Friday - and has moved more than 2 SD from its usual relationship with the SPY.
SLE - scored 6/6 on the Connors filters, closed below the lower BB(20,2), gave a confirmation BUY on the BB(16,2.5).
OC - scored 6/6 on the Connors filters, closed below the lower BB(20,2), and has an RSI(2) below 1.
MSPD - scored 6/6 on the Connors filters, closed below the lower BB(20,2), and has moved more than 2 SD from its usual relationship with the SPY.
What concerns me here is the continued downward pressure on all of the markets right now - it is turning into a "short any rally" mindset that will suffocate anyone with a long-only strategy.
Short Plays
For the short plays, they are relatively few and far between right now, as the requirement is a series of up days and high RSI(2) scores. Nonetheless, there are several that have both closed above their Bollinger bands, or are now being more than 2 SD above their usual relationship with the SPY.
AVNR - Closed above the upper BB(20,2), and has moved more than 2 SD above its usual relationship with the SPY.
BJ - Closed above the upper BB(20,2), gave a confirmation SELL on the BB(16,2.5) - close above the upper band on Thursday, then closed back inside the bands on Friday - and has moved more than 2 SD above its usual relationship with the SPY.
ARNA - Closed above the upper BB(20,2), and has moved more than 2 SD above its usual relationship with the SPY.
ESV - scored 2/6 on the Connors filters, and has moved more than 2 SD above its usual relationship with the SPY.
Since I need to replace ATHN with another short trade, I have to choose one of the 4 short candidates listed here - I like the signals for all of them, but I particularly like the look of BJ in that it hit on 3 key signals that I think generate trades with a high probability of success.
Exits are either a close above/below the MA(10) or the MA(200) - or if a good profit presents itself.
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richo
74 posts
msg #94569
- Ignore richo |
7/6/2010 6:24:28 AM
Kevin,
The markets are due for a "short term bounce" from deeply oversold conditions but I agree with the bigger picture downtrend. Are you still paper trading?
Rich
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #94570
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
7/6/2010 8:52:48 AM
Yes. I currently trade out of my 401k, which does not let me short individual stocks or trade options.
This approach is one that I want to use at some point, and so I am paper trading to get my personal mechanics for it down. Happy to let others watch me succeed or fail, which is why I post each trade, along with a rationale for entry and clearly defined exit criteria (although I reserve the right to take profit off the table at any time).
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misfithab
6 posts
msg #94571
- Ignore misfithab |
7/6/2010 8:57:22 AM
FYI I spent half the weekend trying to play with the exit points....RSI (2) 60, MA (8), etc....lots of time spent but so far nothing that consistently beats what you've laid out...
Great work. This one is very interesting...
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #94574
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
7/6/2010 9:56:38 AM
Shorted 153 shares of BJ at 43.79 to replace the ATHN trade closed on Friday.
Looks like BWEN is going to be a big pain for me today - it is up almost 30% this morning, which will wipe out most of last week's gains all by itself.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #94576
- Ignore johnpaulca |
7/6/2010 10:20:44 AM
BWEN...is at EMA100, a good possibility it will be rejected here, a close above will be bullish
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #94577
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
7/6/2010 10:25:49 AM
Dude - how is its current action NOT bullish??? It is up 28% right now.
I guess this make it an even more attractive short play .... thank god this is only a paper trade.
of course, all other trades are net positive on the day -
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optionplayer333
801 posts
msg #94583
- Ignore optionplayer333 |
7/6/2010 12:03:20 PM
kevin who do your think connors got the rsi-2 from- me dude in 2003 dishonestly
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #94595
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
7/6/2010 7:37:51 PM
7/6/2010 Update:
Long trades:
SHW (Sherwin-Williams Co) - bought 95 shares on 6/30 at 70.06 ($6605.70). Closed today at 69.82 (down 0.34% for a loss of $22.80)
PNRA (Panera Bread Co.) – bought 88 shares on 6/30 at 75.23 ($6620.64). Closed today at 74.08 (down 1.53% for a loss of $101.20)
RCI (Rogers Communications) - bought 201 shares on 6/30 at 33.15 ($6663.15). Closed today at 32.70 (down 1.36% for a loss of $90.45)
Short trades:
GAME (Shanda Games) – shorted 1128 shares on 6/30 at 5.91 ($6666.48). Closed today at 5.61 (up 5.08% for a gain of $338.40)
BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club) – shorted 153 shares on 7/6 at 43.79 ($6699.87). Closed today at 43.21 (up 1.32% for a gain of $88.74).
BWEN (Broadwind Energy) – shorted 2323 shares on 7/2 at 2.87 ($6667.01). Closed today at 3.23 (down 12.54% for a loss of $836.28).
Net loss for today of $904.46 or 1.56%.
Cumulative net gain of $1497.89 or 3.74% since 6/28/2010 (6 days).
BWEN lost $1022.12 today, which was partially offset by the other five trades' net gain of $117.66. However, BWEN is now the top short play from my composite filter, so I will stay in it for at least another day. No exit signals were generated, and none of these have made a high enough profit to cash out yet. All trades remain in play for tomorrow.
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campbellb75
101 posts
msg #94596
- Ignore campbellb75 |
7/6/2010 7:43:20 PM
Kevin-
What filters are you using to find these stocks? I noticed that you're coming up with ones that aren't in the long/short filters from the first post in this thread. Wondering if you're using the ones from your other Conner's thread.
Thanks.
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