Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112210
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/13/2013 12:42:54 PM
@johnpburke:
Good catch - the filter I had posted did not have the "rsi(2) 1 day ago below 20" line that is necessary to match the other filter. I have corrected my ealrier post. Only AVG yesterday, and only NTWK so far today.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112211
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/13/2013 12:57:00 PM
AVG - 1562 shares at $12.80
UPDATE: 5% stop loss hit today at $12.16 (low so far for today was $12.11)
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112213
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/13/2013 2:42:56 PM
and for today we see
NTWK - 1818 shares at $11.00 (currently at $11.09)
UPDATE: Wow. This one also hit its 5% stop loss (current daily low already hit $10.20, stop was at $10.45).
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112217
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/13/2013 4:17:10 PM
Looks like we are in one more toward the close today:
SLCA - 870 shares at $23.00
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112223
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
3/14/2013 9:46:40 AM
Might make sense to track equity on this, assuming a starting equity of $100,000 and a fixed trade amount of $20,000.
AVG - stopped out for a loss of 5% (-$1,000)
NTWK - stopped out for a loss of 5% (-$1,000)
SLCA - in at 23.00 (stop loss at 21.85, which just was taken out at the open of 21.65, so another 5% loss, -$1,000)
Currently equity is $97,000.
Without stop losses in place, we have the following:
AVG - in at 12.80, now at 12.58 (-1.7%)
NTWK - in at 11.00, now at 11.48 (+4.4%)
SLCA, in at 23.00, now at 21.93 (-4.5%)
I'll keep an eye on this - I would prefer to double down at 5% rather than cut losses, but let's see how this plays out.
ADDED IN REVIEW:
Here is what it would look like if you doubled down instead of taking the stop loss:
AVG - in at 12.80, now at 12.58 (-1.7%)
AVG - in again at 12.16, now at 12.58 (+3.4%)
NTWK - in at 11.00, now at 11.48 (+4.4%)
NTWK - in again at 10.45, now at 11.48 (+9.8%)
SLCA, in at 23.00, now at 21.93 (-4.5%)
Big difference ...
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ohbie1
2 posts
msg #112228
- Ignore ohbie1 |
3/14/2013 11:05:34 AM
Hi Kevin, new to SF (couple of weeks). I've been reading all your material and thanks. I've been trading on this Connors idea using scale in as recommended in a blog on his website. He says 10,20,30,40 is the safest. I've been using 33,33,33, and have had 4 losses out of 36 thus far. I could have avoided 2 of the 4 losses but I was impatient. Of course if the stock turns around immediately, it's only 1/3 the profit, but the few losses are very encouraging. It's nice seeing all the green boxes on the spreadsheet.
Frank
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blumberg
27 posts
msg #112229
- Ignore blumberg |
3/14/2013 11:10:36 AM
Kevin,
The loss for SLCA would have been greater than 5% (or $1,000). It would have been a loss of $1174.5.
A 5% stop loss won't protect you if the stock gaps down beyond 5%. Does your backtest account for this?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112235
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
3/14/2013 12:10:05 PM
Probably not - it depends on how gaps down are handled in SS. Nonetheless, I think the better approach is to buy a second lot (if you have the available cash to do so) when the trade moves against you 5%.
Noticed that three more trades were signaled for today -
CLF - 936 shares at $21.37
WLT - 695 shares at $28.77
DDD - 665 shares at 30.08
EDIT: I am not including DGAZ which shows up since it is an ETF and I should have been screened out.
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oldsmar52
104 posts
msg #112248
- Ignore oldsmar52
modified |
3/14/2013 5:47:56 PM
For Ohbie: When you say Connors recommends 10,20,30,40, what is it you're talking about? And, you're using 33,33,33? You are talking about percentages I'm sure, but how are they applied? Thanks, Frank
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #112263
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/15/2013 3:29:00 PM
Well, DDD hit its stop loss today, and if you had automatically entered a stop loss after your limit order entry on MDXG you are busted as well. So far 5 of 7 trades have hit their stop losses.
I don't think this is representative of forward trading, since the system was tested against the past 13 years and hit amazingly well. I am considering this a rough patch right now, which just happens to be right out of the gate ...
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