KSK8
561 posts
msg #145711
- Ignore KSK8
modified |
12/25/2018 12:38:06 AM
nibor,
In statistics when you analyze a stochastic series (this is nothing to do with the stochastic oscillator)..the representative sample for an infinite population is 967 (or above) cases tested. Only then you can be probabilistically sure that a rule has been born. Over the past 14 years for this specific system there has been well over that sample number.
To answer your drawdown concern in a simple approach;
Show me a stock produced by this filter that closed over 70%. Good luck finding one because scenarios like so don't exist. And 14 years of data tells me it won't! RULE OF 967!
Also you can't make the argument that it won't work live trading because it does work !! LOL
Now to address your minor questions;
The point of the "offset is 0" is for those who don't have a subscription would still have the ability to look back into data to see the historical results. Now the purpose of the columns based upon price movement are all for my own leisure because despite being 100% mechanical I feel it is always educational to know what the stock has been doing prior to the criteria transpiring and that is how I gauge price action prior to the current session.
"it is a preferred boat to that of the hype dinghy that you seem to be captaining"
You can insult me all you want but at the end of the day you haven't posted a better system filter. I'd like to see you do so, but I am confident you CAN'T.
Cheers & Merry Christmas!
KSK8
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shillllihs
6,095 posts
msg #145714
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
12/26/2018 3:37:14 AM
Not that I was trying to create a better filter than anyone for shorting but after partying for 2 days I felt I needed to create something. You guys don’t need to like it but what do you all think?
I call it,
Fukin Good Short
Maybe I didn’t create the whole thing but altered some stuff, I’m really drunk so not sure but looks real good.
Does this beat your filter?
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145715
- Ignore KSK8 |
12/26/2018 11:33:00 AM
If you were truly intoxicated and were able to create such a filter I applaud the endeavor but I don't think this filter adds any generic value to mine unless I am not seeing something in it. It does look appealing though.
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shillllihs
6,095 posts
msg #145716
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/26/2018 3:09:24 PM
Yeah was drunk.
Not an improvement on your filter but possibly a better overall filter.
Price above 5 and more easily shortable stocks. But whatever, don’t use it.
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145717
- Ignore KSK8 |
12/26/2018 3:46:15 PM
Its NOT difficult to short stocks under a $1 using Centerpoint. I don't know what old fashion broker you use shillllihs but go google Centerpoint Securities.
But high-5 for the effort!
Maybe one day you'll craft an improved version.
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Mactheriverrat
3,172 posts
msg #145721
- Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified |
12/26/2018 9:35:17 PM
deleted - you wanted a shorting filter
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145722
- Ignore KSK8 |
12/26/2018 10:30:30 PM
Mac,
I encourage you to improve upon it rather than compete, perhaps tinkering with the criteria may yield more plays or more of a return, the possibilities are endless!
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Mactheriverrat
3,172 posts
msg #145723
- Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified |
12/26/2018 11:00:22 PM
Roger that! The possibilities are endless!
;-)
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #145724
- Ignore johnpaulca |
12/27/2018 12:13:01 AM
Why would anyone try to improve on a filter that yields a 95% win rate? If this correct then it would be the best filter ever posted on SF and kudos KSK8.
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145728
- Ignore KSK8
modified |
12/27/2018 11:15:09 AM
I am going to go ahead and explain this filter which I should have done earlier;
WHY THIS FILTER HAS SUCH A HIGH WIN RATE:
The reason this has such a huge accuracy is because of a number of factors that transpire which gives more weight to the next day being bearish.
Essentially the prospect of the filter is based upon extreme price exhaustion and bagholders dumping their shares. This creates a manifestation of panic.
Explanation of the criteria:
-Stocks under $5 are typically unsuccessful companies so whenever there is a large move to the upside, a lot of bagholders will be taking their profits and getting out creating selling pressure.
-The RSI(2) crossing above 98 component signifies price exhaustion from a technical standpoint. This being a huge bearish indication of a 1 bar pullback or a large reversal. One of those factors will happen. So it is better to assume its a 1 bar pullback and take the short trade as the rules go.
-The close is 10% below the high criteria in this tells us that the stock failed to break to higher highs intraday giving a strong signal the move is out of power and weakness is now in play.
-When there is over 50,000,000 worth of liquidity for a stock that prior had liquidity minuscule to that number, this gives the ability for fakeouts to transpire since there are too many new traders and investors trading the stock for this particular day.
--------------------------------------
With all these in play, you can bet with little doubt the next trading secession will indeed be bearish! That next day is what we want to play, NOT the next several days. I don't care what happens after because it could keep running after the expected bearish move, who knows! But what we do know is there is a high probability the stock will undergo a bearish day after its big green day.
In terms of profitability, until presented another one, this stands as THE most profitable filter on stockfetcher.
However the caveat is you need the correct broker because tdameritrade, robinhood,etrade, and traditional brokers WILL NOT have the shares you need to borrow in order to short. Centerpoint Securities and Speedtrader however are notorious for having shares to short because you have the ability to locate and route your own shares.
Now go put it to work before telling me I am wrong!
-KSK8
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