| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL | << 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up |
| KSK8 561 posts msg #145866 - Ignore KSK8 |
1/4/2019 4:09:41 PM So on that basis, isn't it an enticement to optimize this system to eliminate such brutal drawndown? If optimization isn't deemed necessary then here's two other things that can be done to improve the odds of winning 95% of the time; I didn't mention these because it only decreases the # of candidates. (which everyone seems to have a problem with for some reason) 1. Don't play it unless premarkets fails to hold the morning spike. This requires looking at the intraday chart. I did not include it in the criteria because I doubt there are any ways to mechanically backtest using premarket or afterhours data. 2. The high must be sitting right under heavy resistance. However there isn't a universal criteria of what "heavy resistance" is coherently defined as. And I am not an expert of how to implement S/R in stockfetcher code. This guy explains both these concepts here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSQAbJ6PGZU -- Thus, what stockfetcher criteria out there can be utilized as a heavy resistance component? I'd love for this to be 95% enabled for stockfetcher rather than having to employ other tools outside of stockfetcher to generate that statistic. |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #145870 - Ignore mahkoh |
1/5/2019 8:42:23 AM What do you exactly mean with "premarket fails to hold the morning spike? |
| SAFeTRADE 656 posts msg #145872 - Ignore SAFeTRADE |
1/5/2019 9:36:10 AM My take on Support and Resistance filter. Edit to your LIKING. |
| SAFeTRADE 656 posts msg #145873 - Ignore SAFeTRADE |
1/5/2019 10:26:42 AM Added a few Bells no whistles yet. |
| KSK8 561 posts msg #145875 - Ignore KSK8 |
1/5/2019 11:44:22 AM mahkoh, Morning spike - larger upwards move in premarket establishing a higher high. Fails to hold - it cascades back down Why its important- When premarket fails to hold the morning spike that indicates selling pressure which may trigger panic selling enabling even more selling pressure. Too bad SF doesn't allow intraday & extended hours data though.. ---------------- SAFeTRADE, Thanks for posting that! Do you happen to know of any specific filters on this forum that utilize critical S/R levels or anything related to the concept of the volume profile? That'd be terrific if only SF could plot the sideways histogram of that specific indicator... |
| Mactheriverrat 3,173 posts msg #145876 - Ignore Mactheriverrat modified |
1/5/2019 11:59:41 AM One can go long or short a stock or what ever he or she may one to trade. See 100's of filters on here that bring 100's of stocks. Its the "TRIGGER" that one uses to make that long or short by.  |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #145877 - Ignore mahkoh |
1/5/2019 1:01:07 PM KSK8, I wouldn't worry too much about increasing percent profitable. In the last year 19 times a stock gained more than 100 % from open to close. Glancing through the list only GBR looks like it could have qualified the day before as a candidate. I just wouldn't bet the farm on every trade. Edit: GBR did not qualify, probably because rsi(2) was too low as it closed way below the open. |
| KSK8 561 posts msg #145878 - Ignore KSK8 modified |
1/5/2019 2:15:42 PM mahkoh, That is impossible unless you are counting OTC's. Even without implementing the other rules that I've mentioned throughout this thread it still wouldn't ever produce a stock closing double its open price. I've been trading this system since May. I've had some pretty harsh days and some pretty brutal losses but I have never encountered a short squeeze that forced a margin call. I don't doubt its inevitable to happen but I've never had a down month trading this system. I don't even risk more than 75% of my capital. Regardless of that premise, I'd still like to incorporate a metric to decrease potential drawdown... |
| nibor100 1,099 posts msg #145882 - Ignore nibor100 |
1/6/2019 1:22:29 AM @ksk8, 1. Here are the results of my SF historical checking filter of the 252 days preceding 12/28/2016: a. 118 Trades, 76 winnners and 42 losers for a 64% win rate, b. On 7/14,2016 out of the 5 trades signaled by your corrected filter that day: OPTT lost -87% (which I believe exceeds your earlier challenge for me to find a loser > -70%), and both FTFT and SPU lost -57.29 (I believe there is a corrupt data problem in SF for SPU so I'd throw that one out of the results) 2. I've updated my copy of Amibroker with the TC2000 symbol data and am running the 14 year backtest of your shorting strategy overnight as running just the 2018 year took about 16 minutes. Hopefully, I'll have those results by breakfast time. Ed S. |
| nibor100 1,099 posts msg #145884 - Ignore nibor100 |
1/6/2019 10:39:57 AM @ksk8, 1. Results from my Amibroker backtest (which apparently ran in only 12 minutes) are: a. 661 trades, 456 winners and 105 losers for 69% winners Max Drawdown -12%, Compounded Annual Return of 20.7% Total profit 1,291% It also found OPTT at -87%, and FTFT at -49% as losing trades on 7/15/2018 but no SPU. Note that I used 10% portfolio equity for each individual stock short trade. b. For comparison to my prior posted SF yearly results, this Amibroker backtest found: 2018, 163 trades, 121 winners and 42 losers 2017 142 trades, 102 winners and 40 losers 2016 96 trades, 60 winners and 36 losers 2015 46 trades, 30 winners and 16 losers 2014 33 trades, 25 winners and 8 losers Clearly the SF stock universe is greater than TC2000's for lower priced stocks. 2. Regarding your last response to Mahkoh, I'm not following the logic of stating that a stock can't have a 100% gain in one day. Your filter doesn't seem to have any criteria that would limit the potential 1 day gain for a stock and it seems to me that it would be entirely possible for an 11 cent stock to reach 22 cents in one day or even more. Ed S. |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL | << 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up |