EMWALKER, correct, i dont just look at macd for entry. i use a combination of technicals. OBV, Aroon and MACD have to look a certain way for entry. sometimes I just use an hourly chart.
Basically what it comes down to is, I have a system, it is 50% accurate. Average gain for winning trades is 12%, average loss for losing trades is 4%. I think that's pretty good as long as you don't mind the low accuracy. I'm having trouble pulling the trigger and actually trading it, because how do I know it will continue to work? It worked during my brief back test period that I did manually on SF, but there is no way to know if it will work moving forward, unless the market is exactly like it was during the back test period, which it never will be.
So how can you have faith in a TA based system? Do you just trust that it worked in the past so it will work in the future?
four 5,087 posts msg #142192 - Ignore four modified
emwalker: 50% is basically a coin flip.Unless you have superior money management skills,you're not putting the odds in your favor.Always remember,regardless of what system you use,you're the one who ultimately determines your profitability.As you've seen over and over "past performance is not guarantee of future results".There are absolutely no guarantees.Best,Miketranz...
emwalker: Maybe you should consider posting your filter. One of the SF veterans might be able to offer some tweaks to increase the win % and/or profitability. Also, they might be able to refer you to a similar existing SF filter that has been back tested for 3-4 years or longer. Before 2017 you could back test on SF and back tests of several years were common. Good Trading. Ron
ron, I'm not really look for help with a filter, I'm just simply asking:
1. Has anyone written a scan/developed a strategy with defined rules that they follow and make money. Meaning, "I will only buy if this indicator says this, and that indicator does that, then sell when this indicator does something else". Or is SF only good for narrowing down your list of potential buys, then you just evaluate each stock individually. You might buy one stock for one reason, and another stock for another reason.
2. How do you know if a strategy is a good strategy, if its pointless to backtest since that is just seeing how it fit that curve. There is no way to know if it will work in the future. Do you just say, "hey this makes sense, I'll trade it and see how it goes".
emwalker:You're asking for the holy grail.Everyone on here's seeking the same thing.Let me know when you find it.In the mean time,just start trading a few set up's with small position size.See what works for you,then keep trading it over and over again.There's a multitude of set up's,methods,filters.Good luck,Miketranz...
Thats what quant trading is, pure algorithmic trading. This site does not offer that kind of in depth market matrices that one would require to build a full tilt auto system that always made money.
But you can get pretty close, and its simple.
When the market is going up buy stocks. Buy the leaders, the ones that are beating the market.
You should not even need a scan to pick 5 stocks that have lead the market in the last 6 months.
But here is a start.
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