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| txtrapper 548 posts msg #30491 - Ignore txtrapper |
1/6/2004 1:44:11 PM petrolpeter Both are excellent picks, SVNT has power, and is getting ready to ride the upper BB. CTIC is prime for a move to $10.00. Both are above 10d/30m resistance too, you are an excellent stock picker in my opinion. I would buy them both. TxTrapper |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30492 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/6/2004 7:23:29 PM Just my 2 Cents. Both these stocks, SVNT & CTIC, if they do rise will be rising out of oversold weakness rather than out of strength. This is OK but I suspect that more money can usually be made on stocks that are above most resistance and overhead supply and heading for new highs. SVNT gapped down on earnings that underperformed the same qtr. last year and on big volume, 4.7X ADV. SVNT has the 25 DMA below it now for support but needs to flatten out. The 50 DMA is resistance just above it at $5.05. This bears watching particularly since SVNT is slightly overbought on daily charts @ 74. Should the stock break the 50 DMA it will likely encounter heavy resistance at the bottom of the gap @ $5.30. SVNT did manage to break a Resistance Trendline that has formed since the gap down which, IMO, is the main basis for a long position here, IMO. Just for a different perspective, the premo entry was when the 3 year Resistance trendline was broken on 4/2/03. This is where Monthly chart screens would come in very handy on SF. SVNT gained about 150% from that Res. TL break before it broke the Supporting Trendline on 11/10/03. CTIC may go on to produce some gains as it has managed to break a 3 month Resistance Trendline. This attracted some attention which enabled it to gap above the 50 DMA on increasing ( but not particularly high ) volume. One thing I would note is that on the Weekly chart CTIC is slightly overbought and so far is forming a Doji Star pattern with the 25 Week MA as resistance and the 50 Week MA as support. If CTIC can not close the week above about $10.25 then an Evening Star pattern could develop. On Weekly charts buying volume has been low this accumulation phase, indicative of a move out of oversold weakness not strength. Earnings have been dismal which has brought about a 3 year downtrend. However that said, one very big thing in your favor is that the Monthly chart stochastics fast & slow lines have completely converged and indicate a high probability that a long term accumulation phase could be beginning. This could easily drive this one to test a 7 month Resistance Trendline at about $11.90 ( & falling ). CTIC is also struggling to stay above a 17 Month Supporting TL. JMHO |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #30493 - Ignore txtrapper |
1/6/2004 9:02:54 PM My picks for tomorrow, Wed. 1/6/2004 HOMS..$4.48 Buy on Green..if it starts up it's good to $4.75 or maybe $5.00. $5 Muddy's magic number. ELP...$4.71 Watch this one, Buy in a dip "only" $4.60 area, resistance around $4.80. BVEW...$3.48...I am going to buy this one if it goes "Green". Wednesday is turn around day. TxTrapper |
| petrolpeter 439 posts msg #30498 - Ignore petrolpeter |
1/7/2004 2:24:43 PM Trendlines,teacher what are trendlines?(just kidding)CTIC trade is over going as high as 16%.taking SVNT off list ,SF charts show volume bars green while Bigcharts and others show same bars as red!?Trendlines don't usually look so hot for bottom fish sceens like this but I look for a baseline I can draw like doublebottom or a common base price,look at AQA,LTRX,NUVO,and NSIT,reasonable base entry points.Just the nature of this particular sreen. |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #30500 - Ignore txtrapper |
1/7/2004 4:06:29 PM petrolpeter CTIC up $.12 today excellent pick. Tx |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30503 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/7/2004 6:28:20 PM 'Excellent' may be a bit premature, IMO. CTIC gapped down this morning to the 17 Month Supporting trendline and gained on relatively low volume, 0.7X of ADV. All gains were in the last 15 minutes of the session. It's very important that CTIC closed above this long term TL ( I suspect this is the reason for the 'painting of the tape' at the end of the session ) but still needs to close above $10.25 Friday. I would view todays move as a bounce more than a move out of strength. I suspect tomorrows action will indicate the near term direction of this one. There is a descending price channel CTIC has been moving in. Will it drop back into this channel tomorrow or keep moving higher? I was hoping to get a response that explained the reason for the pick. Curious if anyone bought this stock? If so at what price and what was the buy signal? I see a trade at $9.57 at the break of a 3 day Resistance TL on the 5 minute chart. But, IMO, there is a fairly high risk associated with holding it overnight since the gains were on such a small percentage of the days overall volume, only about 50K shares or so. With Monthly stochastics moving into an accumulation phase there could very well be some gains to be made over the longer term but it could take a while to realize them. BTW, this is not a personal thing for me. If your or my methodology is being challenged consider it an opportunity. It offers the opportunity for everyone involved to further clarify the methodology for themselves as well as others and costs nothing. We can let the market challenge our methodology but that can be costly if it has flaws we havn't nailed down yet. If your methodology is perfect there is nothing to be gained by challenging it. |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #30505 - Ignore txtrapper |
1/7/2004 7:26:15 PM CTIC was one of petrolpeter's picks, I recall taking a quick look at the stock on the 1yr/w Prophet chart and giving my positive comment, which turned out to be correct. I did not do a lot of T/A myself. I did notice that the stock had shot thru the upper BB on the 3m/d chart, which indicates a continuation. It also sprung back from it's low for the day, indicating strength. Both of his picks CTIC and SVNT appeared to be strong stocks IMO. I don't use trendlines in my T/A, price, volume plus the EMA(9) WMA(30) crossover gets me excited. It don't get no better than that IMO. CTIC has been moving up nicely since the middle of December, the first resistance I see is about $10.67 it's high in early November, and Fast Stochastic 10,10 was shooting up on the 1y/w chart with the line "widening". SVNT has been in an uptrend since March, and has been in a long consilidation since about the first week of November, and that's a good thing, especially an uptrending stock, according to William O'Neil it should continue in it's last direction before the consolidation. The Fast stochastic 10,10 was just getting read to cross on the 1y/w chart. In my opinion excellent picks, and tomorrow I expect them both to move up nicely. Tx Zuber, I am not sure if I was to comment or petropeter. |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #30506 - Ignore txtrapper |
1/7/2004 7:46:53 PM Hot Stocks for Thursday, 1/8/2004 TRIB...$4.63 recent breakout, doing a minor correction holding on the EMA(9. VLGC...$3.48 should bounce of the WMA(30) moving average. ELP....$4.61 should bounce of the WMA(30) moving average. These are strong stocks, not bottom feeding, scum sucking, RSI(2) catfish. In a recent dip, I would venture to say, that if a person bought these three stocks tomorrow at the open, green or red, set a 5% stop limit, and went to Cancun for three or four days and came back, they would still own these stocks and have a real good profit. As Bill O'Neil says "buy high and sell higher" I know of two ways to play this market, buy at the bottom, or buy at the top, both methods can be rewarding. Tx |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30511 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/7/2004 9:33:28 PM TxTrapper, I'm glad to discuss this with whoever wants to. Is the 'WMA' a Weekly Moving Average? If I plug in a 30 Wk. MA into Big charts or Stock Charts.com it comes out at $10.25 this week which appears to be what stopped CTIC as resistance. I use the 25 & 50 Week MAs and the 25 WK.MA is resistance at about $10.24. The 25Wk.MA ( or 30 Wk. )was support for about a year before the recent drop in price so it would seem to be valid as resistance to be dealt with. SVNT is an excellent example of the usefulness of trendlines. Draw a line from the low of 3/26/03 where the uptrend began across the bottom of 8/13/03 to the far right of the chart in one continuous straight line. This is the most conservative supporting trendline that can be used for our purposes. Notice that CTIC violated this TL indicating that the trend has changed. Support has become resistance. Also since Nov. 10 the trend has been down, with the 25 DMA as resistance. Notice that today it was confirmed as resistance once again as overbought stochastics (5,3) begin to converge, indicating a possible cycle top soon. Here's another very important Trendline that is very revealing. Draw a line from the high formed on 10/3/03 to the high of 1/7/03 continue it to the far right of the chart. Here it shows us that SVNT was stopped on Jan. 5,6 & 7 by this TL resistance. I see this kind of interactivity with every stock I chart, without exception. A comment about the pullback of this stock that I believe is not healthy, that is the fact that the pullback was a gap down, not an orderly decline. And the gap was caused by bad earnings announcement, the life blood of a stock. The gap was considerable and it was on big volume. Very bearish. This is one aspect I like about Bigcharts is that you can select 'show earnings with value' and the correlation between earnings and stock price becomes unavoidable. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30512 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/7/2004 11:11:16 PM txtrapper respectfully, Oneals methodology is very disciplined. He advocates buying at pivot points. That is to say within a couple percent of the exact point that a stock breaks out of a consolidation pattern like for instance a cup w/handle or inverted Head and Shoulders. Take a 2 year chart for JBLU for instance. The stock made a high on 5/6/02 at $24.51. The stock then proceeded to form a 13 month cup with handle pattern. The pivot point was reached on 6/6/03 forming a typical cycle top Evening Star Doji pttern as it hit up against resistance at $24.51. From here a handle was formed as weak hands were purged from the stock just before the run begins. It was a minor pull back. A Morning Star Doji pattern marked the bottom of the handle bouncing up off the 50 DMA on 6/10/03. The breakout above the pivot point came on 6/17/03 on less than desirable volume but it worked none the less ( Oneal likes to see at least 200% ADV or better on breakouts ). From here the uptrend becomes considerably steeper and volume on the Monthly chart picks up. He advocates taking a position within a couple percent ( I believe he called it 1/8 of a point ) of the breakout pivot point and using an 8% stop. TRIB looks interesting. Thanks. What did you use to find it? |
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