EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30951
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/3/2004 3:12:09 AM
IECE hit an oversold stochastic value of 0 on the hourly chart. The last hour of todays session found the stock trading between support and resistance of the wedge pattern. Tomorrow it is going to break one way or the other.
End of day chart indicates that sell volume is slowing down but intraday chart shows that most volume is still on the sell side.
15 HR.MA @ $1.48 and flattening out.
TL Res. tomorrow morning will be at $1.47.
TL Sup. @ $1.425
IMO
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wallman
299 posts
msg #30955
- Ignore wallman |
2/3/2004 7:53:55 PM
ZUB,as always thanks for the input,congrats on your NVAR trade,great call!
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30956
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/3/2004 9:10:18 PM
wallman
Thanks. When I saw NAVR come up an a screen and I checked out the TA & FA it gave me a warm feeling. Whenever that happens I know its a good one.
This is one of my favorite set ups when a stock is oversold and testing TL support. Particularly when the fundamentals are good.
The PEG is only 0.92 with 28% EPS growth in FY 2004.
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wallman
299 posts
msg #30957
- Ignore wallman |
2/3/2004 9:26:59 PM
ZUB,ha yeah i know that feeling,that's the way i feel about AIRN if i can get one more clunky day out of it to get the rsi2 in the 5's or lower and if i can catch my favorite GRIC on a green hold in the next day or 2
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30961
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/4/2004 11:04:10 AM
wallman
AIRN getting very oversold. Testing the 200 DMA as support. That would look like a good spot to me except AIRN announces earnings after the bell tonight.
GRIC has tested the 25 WK. MA. @ $2.04 and bounced up but looks like it will retest.
Good luck
Looks like NASDAQ is just about testing that 15 WK.MA. ~ 2000.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30962
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/4/2004 2:21:40 PM
There she goes. NASDAQ dropping to test the 15 WK.MA.
Convergent Stochastic Theory indicated this would likely happen.
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nktanaka
5 posts
msg #30965
- Ignore nktanaka |
2/4/2004 6:26:19 PM
So according to the Convergant Stochastic Theory, Nasdaq will rally a bit but it won't make new highs? Monthly Stochastic is entering distribution. Weekly is in distribution. Daily is oversold. And hourly is oversold. Or because both the monthly and weekly stochastic are in distribution, that trumps the daily stochastics and the daily stochastics will remain in an oversold situation until the weekly stochastics becomes oversold?
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30968
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/5/2004 2:24:11 AM
nktanaka
I think you have a pretty good handle on it.
When Weekly chart stochastics are oversold and the fast line has crossed below the slow line it indicates that typically there is a longer term distribution phase of the cycle beginning.
If the daily chart stochastic cycle becomes oversold at the same time, it indicates that a shorter term accumulation phase is likely beginning.
Typically the Weekly chart influence is longer term, more sluggish in action but more influential over the time frame involved. In other words the fluctuation from high to low over the entire cycle will be greater than the shorter term daily chart fluctuations but will take a longer time to complete. ( Same with Monthly chart. )
Usually what will happen is the chart will rise to test resistance on the Daily chart and confirm it at some point then drop to test a support area on the Weekly chart. Like the 15 or 25 Week Moving Average or possibly some long term support like the 200 DMA.
In this case the NASDAQ moved up to test the 25 DMA as resistance and bounced down confirming it for now then dropped lower to test the 15 Week MA.
If you look at a close up of the Daily chart ( about a 1 month chart ) you will see how the NASDAQ formed what has been called a 'head fake'. What it really is though, is the effect of the Weekly chart in distribution keeping the daily chart from effectively going into accumulation. This creates a deeper and longer distribution phase on the daily chart.
Until, that is, the two time frames are once again in phase again in accumulation. When this happens it will be our best shot at a move above the last cycle high. ( 2153.8 in this case ).
Since the NASDAQ was so extremely oversold back in Oct. 2002 the long term Quarterly chart was also oversold. Back in Oct. 2002 the accumulation phase began when the fast line crossed above the slow line in that Quarterly chart time frame. This cycle can last a long time. This has been driving the market higher in such a fashion as to mitigate all the distribution phases in all shorter time frames.
For a real eye opener look at a 10 Year ( or longer ) Yearly chart. In this time frame the fast and slow line are just converging indicating a possible start of a really long term, possibly several year, accumulation phase.
You can also see the distribution phase began in early 2000.
That said however, notice that the Quarterly chart is becoming overbought and the fast line is starting to converge with the slow line. Because this is such a long term cycle the effects will not be immediately felt but I suspect we will see a gradual leveling off of the rising curve.
Just noticed that today NASDAQ tested an 11 month Supporting trendline. This is an extremely important development, IMO. If this is broken on the daily chart ( on a closing basis ) it is very significant.
If it is broken on the Weekly chart ( on a closing basis ) this has longer term implications.
On a Monthly chart is extremely significant, longer term.
Notice this is all happening as the Quarterly chart stochastics are coming together in an overbought condition. Things are looking a bit toppy here long term.
JMHO
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30971
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/5/2004 12:48:12 PM
wallman
Thought to look at IECE today.
Looks like its testing the 50 WK.MA as support and looks like buying volume is coming into the stock.
JMHO
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30972
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/5/2004 3:03:48 PM
So far todays action in the NASDAQ has just been a testing of resistance. Sellers sold into short term strength from the oversold bounce. JMHO
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