| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 50 >>Post Follow-up |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29004 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/2/2003 10:58:52 PM mika I also still think that the NASDAQ will hit 2,100 ~ 2,300 but may take a good while with Monthly chart wave starting distribution. The downtrend is already in place. It was first revealed when the NASDAQ gapped down and tested trendline support as resistance and confirmed it on 9/23. I suspect the NASDAQ will rise to possibly as high as 1,883 where trendline resistance has formed from ( on hourly charts ) the high of 9/19 @ 9"30 @ 1,913 to the high of 9/24 @ 9:30 @ 1,904. If drawn to the present time it ends up at 1,883 ( & falling ). I don't see any way we break above that any time soon. Notice that today the market was stopped by resistance at the 25 DMA @ 1,850. Also notice that the 25 DMA is starting to flatten out and I suspect that shortly it will roll over. Notice how oversold NASDAQ became on the daily chart this time before ending distribution and starting a new accumulation phase? From my earlier post regarding the pulse width modulation of these waves this tells us that something is changing. The distribution phase is becoming longer and deeper. A weekly chart distribution phase we went through from mid July to August 8th gave us that long drawn out cycle bottom. Thats because it was made up of 2 Daily chart cycles that ended in phase with weekly chart stochastics in a distribution mode. These are the things that can happen when you get complex waveforms. That is, waveforms that move in and out of phase with one another. When they align you get a big move. The NASDAQ dropped -7.6%. However this time we have the Monthly chart cycle in phase with the Weekly chart cycle distribution phase. The fact that the Daily chart stochastics are just starting accumulation phase I suspect will not be anywhere enough to counter act the other two more influential and longer term waves. I suspect the Daily chart wave will be muted. All the indications are there. This is the first time we have had a deep cycle oversold bottom since the last distribution phase convergence. The next one will be a big one. At the end of this daily chart accumulation phase that just started, the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts will ALL be converged in a distribution phase. JMHO I know this is dificult to swallow. I would be skeptical myself had I been the one reading this. It takes time to see the implications of this Stochastic Convergence Theory. Lets watch and see what happens. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29005 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/3/2003 12:53:25 PM Sold DROOY just after the open @ $2.99. Big money ran it up past resistance at $3.05 to $3.12 right out of the gate with a huge blocks of 100K share Bids. Someone sold into this strength and took the whole lot. That started the slde. Apparently news about the strengthening dollar had an impact on gold stocks today. XAU is the only index on my watchlist to be in the red. Its down ( -3.5% ) now. So only about +4.5% gain on DROOY trade. Even though the 25 DMA had been broken to the upside it was never really tested as support. DROOY has broken down now confirming the 25 DMA as resistance. DROOY bounced up off of short term trendline support on the hourly chart in the first hour but in the second hour was broken at $2.93. A close below $2.79 means the trend is seriously down. Looks like it is being tested right now. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29013 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/3/2003 5:19:10 PM Just a follow up on todays NASDAQ action. Notice that today the NASDAQ moved above the resistance trendline I mentioned yesterday at about 1,883. However it closed below that line confirming it as resistance for now. With Daily Stochastics only at 83 it is possible to see this trendline tested again as resistance before the next distribution phase begins. Even if NASDAQ manages to close above it, it seems likely at this point that it will be violated as support as soon as distribution begins. I will concede that the Monthly chart stochastic distribution phase may be mitigated by the rising bullish Quarterly chart wave. It just doesn't seem likely. JMHO |
| jthehut 124 posts msg #29014 - Ignore jthehut |
10/3/2003 6:33:23 PM EWZuber: are you a buyer if acumm/distribution is in accum stage (meaning increasing) BUT the close is decreasing? Also, how do you account for stochastics when this happens ie if stoch is decreasing but accum is happening. One last question, if money flow increases but price decreases, is this a buy signal in your books? thanks in advance, Markus aka jthehut |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #29016 - Ignore txtrapper |
10/3/2003 8:20:16 PM DROOY.. |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #29017 - Ignore txtrapper |
10/3/2003 8:25:41 PM DROOY.... I would have bought DROOY at 1:50PM today 10/03/2003 for $2.70 a share when it bounced off lower L/R would be up $0.15 now. Prophet.net charts 2d/3m Never chase a stock. tx |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29051 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/4/2003 9:51:26 PM jthehut Your first question, "are you a buyer if acumm/distribution is in accum stage (meaning increasing) BUT the close is decreasing? ". My answer is generally no. It is a very bearish indication for a stock to be trending down while stochastics are rising in accumulation. "how do you account for stochastics when this happens ie if stoch is decreasing but accum is happening." I havn't accounted for it to the point that I could explain it. I have primarily focused on the results of the indicators rather than on their composition. But thats a good question and I'll look into it. "if money flow increases but price decreases, is this a buy signal in your books?" I played with Monmey Flow a bit while looking for the mix of indicators to rely on but never really used it much so I can't help you with that one. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29052 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/4/2003 10:08:59 PM txtrapper Friday DROOY hit trendline support formed from the lows of 8/7 & 9/4 that ended up at about $2.69 on Friday and was oversold at a stochastic value of 12 on the hourly chart when it hit this level. This would have been a good buy point for me too for a short term trade. Rule 2520 has me down to only one trade left so I felt I had to pass it up because DROOY formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern Friday and if I were to get forced out of it then I wouldn't be able to trade for another week and that really makes me unhappy. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29195 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/9/2003 5:01:19 AM Took a position in SPIL today, looking for a break from a consolidation pattern. Think it was around $2.14 if memory serves me. |
| lanninb 17 posts msg #29196 - Ignore lanninb |
10/9/2003 6:15:04 AM Zuber, I enjoy reading your posts. You obviously have a lot of knowledge , particularly of the stochastic indicator and are willing to share. That in itself is a big plus .Keep up the good work. |
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