| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options) | << 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142654 - Ignore 15minofPham |
3/8/2018 12:21:11 AM Follow the Money Play of the Day - CRC Premium of $1.2 million on a buy of 10,000 of the 5/18/18 $16 Call for $1.20 with stock at $13.63. This aggressive buy is that the daily Mendoza Line, usually a good risk-reward play. Breakeven of $17.20 would bring it back to the daily 21 EMA which should be very doable given the 9 weeks time frame. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 97-3 and bullish order sentiment was an almost perfect 99%, easily above its 30-day average of 73%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tuesday's spotlight - HPQ, $2.4 million, 11,484 3/29/18 $22 Call for $2.17, Stock $24.03 AMAT, $2.4 million, 8,080 4/20/18 $60 Call for $2.64, Stock $63.01 A nice recovery from the gap down saved these two from finishing in the red. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ As expected the opening gap down helped AMD 4/20/18 11 Put hit the final 100% target. However, the 4/11/18 11 Put is in danger as its sentiment has flipped from bearish to bullish. IWM Put looks like to be a loss if it climbs above the daily cloud. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #142655 - Ignore shillllihs |
3/8/2018 1:24:50 AM I think the returns are fair, but one would seemingly have to be an acrobat and use exceptional form to achieve these results with all the rules and to get the right price but I may be wrong. It kind of reminds me of those acts you used to see in the 70s with the guy spinning all the plates at once. |
| WantingLittle 11 posts msg #142662 - Ignore WantingLittle |
3/8/2018 1:20:46 PM Would be nice if you could substantiate that comment. I'm not seeing acrobatic skills here. |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #142664 - Ignore shillllihs modified |
3/8/2018 1:52:43 PM As compared to buy n hold or swing trading i think it is. I’d rather follow a filter that says, buy, sell. You search daily for new prospects, then you sift through data to make sure the fundamentals are all in tact, news etc. then you have to manage multiple positions, not sure if stops and limits are used or not. Seems a little tricky with if at 97% and it drops to under 75% etc, is there constant monitoring. And all this while using what are commonly known as gimmicks(options) which seem so erratic. And while you’re doing all this research, is price increasing since others are on to this, and are you getting in at the right time? Just seems like a headache, but everyone’s different and strictly my opinion. I do think it was an interesting study and have seen as much as I wanted to to satisfy my curiosity. |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #142665 - Ignore shillllihs |
3/8/2018 2:11:01 PM Forgot to add that being smart money, I expected a much higher win rate and maybe some large trades are purposely made to throw the public off. |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142672 - Ignore 15minofPham |
3/8/2018 3:12:40 PM Shils, I've actually simplified this much more than what I do with my own account. The purpose is to see if following smart money can get you at least 50% so that's why I set this as the first profit target. There's only four stop losses. One at 50%, 75%, 100% and -50%. You don't want to lose your profits so in my portfolio, I'll either set a stop loss AFTER it's reached these levels or a trailing stop. The only difference is there's an automated sell at -50%. My entire portfolio is automated so it might seem confusing at first for someone who doesn't trade options often, but after awhile you get really bored due to everything being automated. With all this being said, options aren't for everyone. You're witnessing first hand how volatility and choppiness in the past six weeks have made it a very difficult environment, especially for options. Money management and reading the charts are critical. Don't follow blindly on every smart money play, but instead wait for a pullback as they are inevitable lately. Once the market goes back to a bullish trend, then you can jump in right away as pullbacks are far & few in between. I see numerous ways to make money on SF as everyone has their own niche. This is mine. :-) |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #142673 - Ignore shillllihs |
3/8/2018 3:38:45 PM Sounds good. I’ve just always figured smart money was actually insiders who would do great in any environment, hitting 85% with 5-10 baggers. Wondering if you can achieve similar results just swing trading without having to worry about expiration. Also thought this seemed like a big process and was not sure if you were really getting in at the prices the big wigs were. If you ever get to Chicago check out this place, the best Spicy Vietnamese Crawfish ever. https://www.yelp.com/biz/saigon-bistro-chicago |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142678 - Ignore 15minofPham |
3/8/2018 8:56:19 PM I've been trading options a LONG time and I rarely see more than a three-bagger unless they're weeklies or you buy them more than six months out. I had two four-baggers, and a five when I made $30K in January, but you have to remember, the market went up non-stop! Even the big boys can't control the market so they're in the same boat as everyone else now. I'll have to check that place out if I'm ever in the Windy City. |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142682 - Ignore 15minofPham |
3/8/2018 10:02:40 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - TER Premium of $5.3 million on a buy of 5,000 of the 10/19/18 $40 Call for $10.70 with stock at $48.12. Interesting this was purchased at resistance since most are Dikembe Mutombo'd. Breakeven of $50.70 means a new 52 week high, but time is certainly on this play's side. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 89-11 and bullish order sentiment was 57%, only slightly higher than its 30-day average of 50%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wednesday's spotlight - CRC, $1.2 million, 10,000 5/18/18 $16 Call for $1.20, Stock $13.63 Gained 2% to push Call to +12.50%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ WYNN was the big winner in this maddening market as it gained more than 6% today to catapult its 5/18/18 175 Call to 100% in only three days. In the process, it became March's first winner. Meanwhile, its 5/18/18 170 Call is at +83%. It's guaranteed a win at 75% as this is where the stop loss is now set. Barring a down day tomorrow, STZ might hit the +50% target to give February its ninth win. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142696 - Ignore 15minofPham |
3/10/2018 12:40:38 AM Follow the Money Play of the Day - MSFT Premium of $1.8 million on aggregate buys of 12,091 of the 3/16/18 $95 Call for an average of $1.52 with stock at an average of $95.73. This will be either a hero or zero play as next week is shenanigans week, aka monthly options expiration where algos will try to pin. On the other hand, it might run to $100 by mid-week before the pin takes over. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 75-25 and bullish order sentiment was 81%, way above its 30-day average of 62%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thursday's spotlight - TER, $5.3 million, 5,000 10/19/18 $40 Call for $10.70, Stock $48.12 Gained nearly 2% but showing a shooting star so not sure how much gas it has left. Still, time is on its side. The option is at +9.81% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ WYNN 5/18/18 170 Call was closed out when it hit +100% giving March its second win. Keep in mind in the real world the gain is currently over 120% so one could have either sold or put a trailing stop. To make bookkeeping easier for this paper trade portfolio, all are sold at 100%. A strong day in the market has guaranteed the portfolio another two wins, QQQ currently at 87% and STZ at 60%. The worst the former can finish is at 75% while the latter at 50%. AMD & IWM came within a hair length from the minimum 50% win but it can accomplish this if the market has a follow-through day on Monday. The only red is SINA. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% 5) Sell before earnings |
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