mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #140039
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/12/2017 4:33:34 PM
UNP and IBM are noteworthy today on the bullish side.
LKQ from a few days back hasn't done bad so far.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140042
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/12/2017 6:24:48 PM
I bought IBM 2/16/18 160 Calls then it promptly faded, but I still have plenty of time.
Today's Big Option Volume Trade of the Day!
QQQ has been choppy over the past three weeks, but an investor thinks it will eventually revert back to its uptrend. Big boys & girls yawn at $1 million QQQ trades since they're so common. When it's $5 million though you need to hop on board and be a tick. An investor laid out $5.7 million when he bought 13,800 contracts of the 2/16/18 155 Calls for $4.13.
What's unusual about this trade is that the break even, $159.13, is 2.2% above today's closing price of $155.69. Sure it's doable, but that's still asking a lot for everything to go right in tech over the next two months. Seasonality show QQQ is up only 50% in January over the past 5 years with an average gain of 0.9%. On the other hand, February winning pct of 83% with an avg gain of 3.7% is its second best month of the year.
A $5 million bet has a very high probability of succeeding so I'll be jumping on this trade too. Remember, you don't have to be a fat cat, just a fat tick!
Yesterday's spotlight on VZ was an instant success. The 3/16/18 52.5 Calls bought at $1.30 closed today at $2.21 giving the investor a one day gain of 70%. I forgot to note yesterday that on the previous day before that another big block of Calls were bought too. That was 9000 of the 6/15/18 55 Calls at $1.14. They're now at $1.73 for a 51% gain in two days.
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SAFeTRADE
649 posts
msg #140050
- Ignore SAFeTRADE |
12/13/2017 6:56:31 AM
Its overall options Calls vs Puts volume was 64%-36%. I would like to see a minimum of 70%,
Is this the Trade Edge column?
Thanks
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140054
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/13/2017 10:07:19 AM
Hi Safetrade,
It's under "Options" on the menu line, then "Options Volume". The site gives you Put Pct of TOTAL options volume. I dig deeper on all high options volume stocks that has a Puts volume below 20.
HTH
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lavapit315
47 posts
msg #140072
- Ignore lavapit315 |
12/13/2017 4:08:01 PM
Could someone please look at TWX? Lots of buy/writes and spreads. Does that mean anything? Appears call volume was higher than put. Trying to learn so any help appreciated. Thanks
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140074
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/13/2017 5:12:52 PM
This is a case where he sold both the 82.50 Puts & 105 Calls (12:44 PM Transaction) for income which in this case was $9.5 million. He did this to offset the purchase of the 95 Calls for $9.9 million. Instead of an outlay of $9.9 million, his final cost was only $400K.
At the time of this Buy Write TWX was $90.35. This means that the stock needs to be above $99.95 (95 strike + $4.95 premium) in order for him to break even. He also thinks the stock will not fall BELOW 82.50 or go ABOVE 105 by 7/20/18. The 52 week high is $103.89 on 10/11 while the 82.50 would be below the 52 week low of 85.88 on 11/15. Basically he thinks TWX will be between this range over the next 7 months.
Algos showed him high probability of success so he did the same Buy Write again nearly 2 hours later.
HTH
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lavapit315
47 posts
msg #140075
- Ignore lavapit315 |
12/13/2017 5:55:16 PM
@15minoffame Thank you for an excellent explanation. I was wondering why there appeared to be 3 transactions and you explained that. So basically he is bullish but not ridiculously bullish. I might just buy a few 95 calls and see how it goes. That's a long ways out though. Thanks again!
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140080
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/13/2017 9:42:04 PM
You're welcome. That's a great play you found! You will turn out to be a nice fat tick if it retest resistance.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140081
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/13/2017 10:09:17 PM
Big Option Play of the Day!
Someone tried to play under the radar by constantly buying small lots of Serv 2/16/18 55 Calls. When all was said and done it turned out to be 15,000 contracts avg .90 for a total cost of $1.35 million! Today's option volume was 240 times its average 90-day volume. Massive to say the least!
It's monthly chart shows an upswing, but for someone to fork over this much money, might he know something? Break even is $55.90, which is 11% from its 50.34 closing price. It's a risky play as this is a big move in only two months so I'm debating if I'll be a tick on this play.
Update on yesterday's spotlight.
The $5 million QQQ play on 2/15/18 55 Calls at $4.13 closed today at $4.20, not much due to QQQ gaining only 0.19%.
My IBM 2/16/18 160 Calls got eviscerated today as the stock cratered -1.81%. As with numerous stocks at resistance, algos smacked it down hard. The days of orderly pullback might be of the past. I'm down 33% but at least I'm in the same boat as the whale. He hasn't sold his either as we have lots of time for it to recover. This goes to show that they don't always hit a home run right off the bat.
This was the second time it stalled at the 157 resistance level so here's hoping the third time is the charm!
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lavapit315
47 posts
msg #140084
- Ignore lavapit315
modified |
12/14/2017 5:24:06 AM
Check out AGN too. Looks like there was about $50 million into Puts and only $1 million in to Calls. About $30 million was straight Put buys. Jan expiration, Correct? Thank you
I just noticed the strikes are over $200 when the stock price is around $170. Still bearish or am I missing something?
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