mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #139835
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/5/2017 3:59:46 PM
Livevol claims to have info on whether options were bought or sold, but is not cheap. You can do some research on your own if you have access to time and sales data and bid/ask charts like IB has. If a block is sold at the ask it is probably a buy order and vice versa. However, if the order was placed at the midpoint you are in the dark.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139839
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 7:28:37 PM
Mahkoh is correct. Livevol is popular in determining if it's a Buy or Sell but they're not cheap. Marketchameleon offers the same data for free, albeit with a 15-min delay. They offer a subscription base, but since I'm not a day trader, I don't have a need to pounce on the trade right away.
If a purchase is at the Ask or Above, then it's a buy. Better yet, if volume exceeds Open Interest, then a new position has been established. If it's at the Bid or below then the option is sold. This is also valuable since it's giving you a hint that the big players think a stock can no longer go above a price (Selling a Call) or below a price (Selling a Put).
Beginning option players should only buy options at least 3 months in advance to give you more time if the market goes against you. If you piggy back on big premium trades of $1 million or more, you'd be surprised how fast your account can grow as these plays have an 80% accuracy. I'd like these plays and blocks of 3000 or more at support, especially on beaten down stocks. These almost have a 100% accuracy as you only need the stock to move 2-3% in order for your option price to double.
Caveat: In a sideways, fade every pop market like we've experienced lately, patience is the key! The big players can afford to have the option price drop because they have plenty of ammo left to average down.The average Joe won't have such luxury so you need to WAIT for SPY to start going up again. Keep an Excel log of all the big buys and when you see the market is back to an uptrend, buy hand over fist on those now cheap Calls!
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139845
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 9:38:00 PM
Spotlight Trade of the Day!
An investor thinks something wicked this way comes as they bought $10 million in QQQ premiums of the 6/15/18 134 Puts at $2.57. This is one of the largest straight up options trades I've seen. Break even is $131.43 so QQQ needs to drop 13.99% from now until expiration. If true, bulls will not be enjoying the Year of the Dog.
Remaining 4 big options plays today:
Legend: Premium, Symbol, Contracts, Expiration Date/Strike/Type, Trade Price
1) $2,608,900, QQQ, 2752, 9/21/18 154 Put, $9.48
2) $2,250,000, XRT, 22,500, 12/29/17 44 Call, $1.00
3) $1,732,730, SPY, 2775, 2/16/18 265 Put, $4.59
4) $1,499,400, XLF, 35,700, 12/29/17 28 Call, $0.42
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tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #139846
- Ignore tennisplayer2
modified |
12/5/2017 10:25:57 PM
15minoffame, where do you see the big trades on market chameleon? Thanks.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139847
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 11:16:04 PM
It's under the tab "Screeners" at the top menu line, then "Option Trades." My personal preference for the filter categories: Trade Filter (Over 500), Trade Price (Over .25), Stock Type (Common), Side (Ask & Above). To be on the safe side that these are open positions choose Trade Qty vs Open Int (Qty > OI). Choosing this will drop the results dramatically BUT the probabilities are much higher since this is a new open position.
HTH
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tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #139851
- Ignore tennisplayer2 |
12/6/2017 1:55:04 AM
15minoffame, thanks.
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #139872
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/6/2017 6:01:55 PM
Thanks, I like the site. I filtered over 500, price over 0.50, spot above 40, buys on the ask and condition regular. GM and WMT are likely dividend related trades, but I find MU and INTC interesting.
Lots of calls bought for MU, which appears to be at support.
Big put activity for INTC, may have a gap to fill? Also notable 25K put options jan19 47 strike. Current oi is 27K, tomorrow it will become clear whether these were closing of current position.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139876
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/6/2017 10:53:26 PM
Mahkoh,
Glad you like the site. This is THE site I check throughout the day. It gives so much info for free! Hopefully the creators don't realize this & cut it down. You may want to also look under Auto Execution, IntermarketSweep & Stopped IM.
MU is a beast of a stock and you're right it's at support so big players are backing up the truck. It reports earnings in 2 weeks so IV should start to rise. Its historical two weeks run up to earnings over the past 2 years is a 75% winning rate with an avg gain of 4.05%. Its TOTAL Calls vs Puts volume today is 73%-27%.
INTC massive $9 million bet it interesting since it's at the Mid. Its Total Calls vs Puts volume today was only 43-57 so for today anyways, investors are thinking it's going to fill the gap from 10/26. I'd stay away from it for the time being.
Here's what I would look at:
1) GM relative volume to its 90-day avg was 8X today with total Calls pct at 98%!
2) WMT rel vol 5.50, Calls pct 97%
3) CME 12.42 & 96%
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #139878
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/7/2017 4:32:34 AM
Those are going ex dividend today. Most likely exercised calls to capture the dividend.
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #139905
- Ignore mahkoh
modified |
12/7/2017 3:50:26 PM
Funny, INTC call open interest on the jan19 47 put is still 27K. I guess IB updates open interest changes in real time.
By the way, both performed according to the analysis. Great that marketchameleon updates intraday.
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