| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Tails, ODRs & ROCdiv...OH MY !!! | << 1 ... 31 32 33 34 35 ... 52 >>Post Follow-up |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96554 - Ignore alf44 modified |
9/24/2010 11:08:53 PM ...having an opinion on the market direction on a day to day basis is useless.... ----- Through a variety of chart set-ups ... I "try" to have "an opinion on the market" ... ... on a month to month basis ... on a week to week basis ... on a day to day basis ... on an hour to hour basis And (with 5 & 10 min. charts) ...on a minute to minute basis !!! --- I don't think it's "useless" at all ! In fact, trading WITHOUT some sort of "day to day" trading bias (that is based on thoughtful analysis of current price action) is something I could never be totally comfortable with ! The filter that this thread is based on ... seeks to do exactly THAT !!! That is ... identify price patterns (ie. tails, odrs, rocdiv) based on individual candles ... that may give clues as to TOMORROW'S price action ... as well as identify pivots that may have longer term implications !!! fwiw --- I will say this. This "Market" is RUN BY ROBOTS !!! imo The "turn on a dime moves" are sometimes very suspicious and are increasingly difficult to navigate and to trade. To try and "swing trade" this crap is becoming an "exercise in futility" ! imo The days of giving a profitable trade "room to run" has (for the most part) apparently become a dangerous gamble ! * Case In Point: My Oct. INTC $19 PUTS were UP + 27% at one point yesterday ... today they're DOWN - 27% !!! NOW that's enough to make you rethink your approach to trade management ! ----- In this "Market" ... if you're fortunate enough to have a G'Damned profit on a trade ... you better take it quick ... cause it is very likely to be gone ... POOF ... once "THE ROBOTS" start firing off BUY and SELL orders. Today we had crap durable goods numbers ... but, some "jackwagon hedge fund SOB" shoots his mouth off on Squawk Box and ... AWAY WE GO !!! Can you say "Short Squeeze" ??? RIDICULOUS !!! All in my not so humble pissed off opinion !!! |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96575 - Ignore alf44 modified |
9/26/2010 7:20:31 PM FURTHER ...wrt a "daily trading bias" ... I stumbled across this some time ago ... ---------- Many studies have examined what is called "Daily Price Persistency." Here are the probabilities of the movement of tomorrow's market based on the action of today's market ... --- If today's market is up...there is a 73% probability of tomorrow's market being up as well, and a 27% probability that tomorrow's market will close down. If today's market is down...there is a 62% probability that tomorrow's market will also be down , and only a 38% probability that the market will close higher. * Historically the market has advanced on 58% of all market days, demonstrating its overall historic upward bias. ALSO ... by examining the last 15 minutes of trading action and determining the direction of that last 15 minutes we gain additional insight into tomorrow. If the last 15 minutes of market action are positive and the market overall closes higher, then the odds of tomorrow being an up day improve to 77% compared to the 73% previously stated. Conversely, if the last 15 minutes of the market are negative on an overall down market day , the odds of the market going down tomorrow increase to 73% from the above mentioned 62%. ---------- It would be interesting to see someone try to write a filter (similar to TRO's Gap Statistics Filter) to see if we could test these assertions. Create a NEW THREAD - (I repeat ... a NEW THREAD) - and put this to the test. Shouldn't be that difficult to do. Anyone ??? |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96588 - Ignore alf44 |
9/27/2010 11:23:43 PM .......... HEAR YE ... HEAR YE ... HEAR YE !!! .......... 
............... The ODRs are Here ... AGAIN !!! ............... |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #96589 - Ignore Eman93 modified |
9/27/2010 11:54:18 PM wrong thread. |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96595 - Ignore alf44 modified |
9/28/2010 9:53:01 PM ......................... the action today .... ..................... 
............................... "SMELT !!!" ............................. |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96596 - Ignore alf44 |
9/28/2010 10:02:22 PM ...............................Did I Mention ... uhhh ... that ... 
.this "MARKET" Is Really Starting To Get On My Nerves !!! |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96597 - Ignore alf44 |
9/28/2010 10:08:05 PM ...let me reiterate ... --- I'll say this. This "Market" is RUN BY ROBOTS !!! imo The "turn on a dime moves" are sometimes very suspicious and are increasingly difficult to navigate and to trade. To try and "swing trade" this crap is becoming an "exercise in futility" ! imo --- THERE ... I SAID IT ... AGAIN !!! |
| marine2 963 posts msg #96626 - Ignore marine2 |
9/30/2010 12:54:50 AM The big boys see the little people buy in then their robots sell in big blocks and destroy the little guys intent to make a few bucks. I agree with Alf, to try to swing trade its a pure gamble. Wouldn't it be nice if the big boys robots could be controlled in such a way to make people trust the behind the scenes antics. |
| wkloss 231 posts msg #96637 - Ignore wkloss |
9/30/2010 8:41:47 PM alf44, The daily price persistency concept seems interesting and I wondered if you would share where you found your statistics. Bill |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #96646 - Ignore alf44 |
10/1/2010 8:42:04 AM Bill, Like I said in my post ... it's just something I stumbled across a while back and thought was interesting. Don't really know anything about these guys ... or, where they got their statistics. Click Here Then ... click on the article ... "Just What Will The Market Do Tomorrow" --- There's also a few other articles there in their archives that are worthwhile. imo |
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