EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31634
- Ignore EWZuber |
4/5/2004 10:57:31 PM
Saw a lot of stocks break TL Resistance just before the close today. This looks bullish for the market tomorrow. NASDAQ closed above channel Resistance. Some resistance may be at 2094 in NASDAQ.
TXCC looked good at the close today, also GIGM showed some interest. Both broke short term TL Resistance.
Picked both up. Will see if they continue tomorrow.
I've found that this seems to be an alternative method to enter a stock if one has less than $25K in their account. If the position goes south it won't count against you as a daytrade when it is exited the next morning. There is added risk though as one does not know for certain what kind of event could impact the markets after the close and cause a gap down.
Wanted to get back into FMDAY as it broke short term TL Res. but couldn't risk another day trade and get forced out of the market.
It dropped as expected below my entry point but it did not stay down. Conservation of capitol is primary from my perspective.
JMHO
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31644
- Ignore EWZuber |
4/6/2004 10:34:29 PM
There's that gap down. lol. Thanks NOK.
Did some DD on ANCC. Its been basing for several days getting nowhere. Found that there is massive insider selling going on this month.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31652
- Ignore EWZuber |
4/7/2004 2:36:23 PM
Finding that many stocks are testing their 10 and 15 Month MA now. Just watched POSO gathering huge Bids at about $0.47 which is the 15 Month MA. and then proceed to jump +46% in the following two days.
XYBR gathered bids at the 15 Month MA. at $1.12. Weekly stochastic F & S lines have converged. Daily chart lines are beginning to converge above a deep cycle low ( at a stochastic value of 38 which is not very oversold). This is usually a bullish indication that distribution will not be significant this cycle due to convergence of stochastic cycles all beginning accumulation in different time frames. So far a break of TL Res. has not been possible for several days.
BVEW testing the 200 DMA and the 10Month MA @ $3.12. Has bounced up a tad. I suspect this is the bottom for a while.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31654
- Ignore EWZuber |
4/8/2004 12:11:53 PM
ANCC finally getting off the ground. Started to have some doubts but held in there due to the low entry point. With Weekly stochastics lines completely converged now it looks like there should be considerable upside left over the next several weeks.
JMHO
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #31657
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
4/8/2004 4:29:27 PM
Hey EWZuber:
This thread is getting LONG, IMHO.
Any chance you can start a new one each month?
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buzzcraft
11 posts
msg #31661
- Ignore buzzcraft |
4/8/2004 8:48:43 PM
Okay, I just have to whine a little - I finally got out of ANCC (I'm black and blue from it too). I've been in and out 3 or 4 times over the last two months and it's demonstrated what a timing idiot I am. It should be a great stock/company, all the right ideas and plans. But, have you seen all the insider selling? I know you have and that it doesn't matter. I hope you do great with this one, I'll celebrate with you! Keep us posted, a vicarious success is better than none!
--buzz
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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #31666
- Ignore txtrapper |
4/9/2004 3:45:29 PM
Members;
ANCC.... Two year/weekly chart...Full Stochastics (5,3,3) does not look
promising IMO, it's a "sell".
TxTrapper
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31667
- Ignore EWZuber |
4/9/2004 9:52:03 PM
txtrapper
I would be interested in hearing a more detailed assessment, full stochastics look good to me.
Anyhow, here's what I see;
The 15, 25 & 50 WK.MAs are in uptrends on the weekly chart. So they can all serve as support and will not serve well as resistance, just as a MA will not serve well as support if it is in a downtrend.
The 25 & 50 DMAs are in a very slight downtrend and are still functioning as resistance. Thursday ANCC bounced down confirming the 25 DMA as resistance for now.
The selling volumeon the Weekly chart has declined quickly and looks good.
You can see that the week of 3/14 the stock attempted to bounce up off the 25 WK.MA but stochastics were still in distribution phase and had a good ways to go.
Selling volume went from 14 Mill. ( week of 3/21 ) to 7 Mill the following week then we got a bounce up off the 50 WK.MA. while stochastics are now oversold with %K & %D have almost completely converged.
This indicates that this is likely just the start of a longer term move higher ( accumulation phase ) and gives ANCC plenty of time to get the 25 & 50 DMAs in an uptrend on the Daily chart.
With an entry at $1.06, just 6C above the bottom, the upside potential is considerable. With the only resistance above the 50 DMA at $1.57 this offers a reasonable potential gain of 50% over the entry. If that resistance is broken then it could be much greater.
I like to try to get in at the bottom, it offers a greater level of safety.
JMHO
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31668
- Ignore EWZuber |
4/9/2004 10:37:33 PM
XYBR...also bounced up off the 15 Month MA. on Thurs. on huge volume. About 10X ADV.
MWAV...Looks prime for a bounce up off of the 25 DMA. Hourly chart shows a beautiful descending TL and looks like it may form a double bottom around $ 3 ~ $3.04. It closed right up against TL Res. Thurs. but is overbought on the 5 min. chart.
JMHO
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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #31669
- Ignore txtrapper |
4/10/2004 10:59:35 AM
Members;
I follow Stan Weinstein's Model closely for stock entry, here is an excerpt from his book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets";
(Quote)
30-Week Moving Average
No trades may be entered if price is below the 30-week weighted moving average or if the moving average slopes downwards. (end of quote).
-----------------------
The 30-week MA seems to have an almost mystical forecasting ability, and this has been widely noted over the years and emphasized in the work of such legendary analysts as J.M Hurst, Weinstein and others.
ANCC is below the 30-week Moving Average at this time.
TxTrapper
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