| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options) | << 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142165 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/12/2018 10:17:26 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - SPB Premium of $1.6 million as part of spread on 3,750 of the 3/16/18 $105 Call for $4.20 with stock at $103.40. Smart money was relatively quiet today. Maybe waiting to see how strong this dead cat bounce is? SPB is now at support and getting to the break even of $109.20 shouldn't be too hard if the market co-operates. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was an astounding 100-0 and bullish order sentiment was 74%, doubled its 30-day average of 31%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Friday's spotlight - SPY, $3.8 million, 14,965, 2/23/18 $265 Call $2.59, Stock $257.74 Had a strong day until big fade last hour. Nevertheless, premium hit our first target of +50% in only one day which assured a win since the trailing stop is set at +50%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Not all stocks have participated in this two day rally as was the case of CMCSA. It hit the -50% stop loss to give the portfolio its twelfth loss. Smart money is having a hard time getting out of this slump. A bright spot is MSFT who is now at +61%. This assured a win as the trailing stop is set at +50%.  |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #142198 - Ignore mahkoh |
2/13/2018 6:25:31 PM WDAY June 105 calls bought: 10K contracts (17 mln dollar bet) with the stock at 115.41 |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142204 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/13/2018 10:04:05 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - WDAY Premium of $17.3 million on 10,000 of the 6/15/18 $105 Call for $17.30 with stock at $115.41 A surprising gargantuan play in a weak tape. Recovered nicely from the daily Mendoza Line, but still, breakeven of $122.30 is 4.86% from today's close of $116.63. What it does have on its side is time since expiration is four months away. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 95-5 and bullish order sentiment was 48%, well below its 30-day average of 70%. This is misleading because the purchase price was only $.20 off of the Ask price. Bullish sentiment would've easily been above its 30-day avg had it been at the Ask price. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Monday's spotlight - SPB, $1.6 million, 3,750, 3/16/18 $105 Call $4.20, Stock $103.40 Negligible +0.43% didn't move the option price. It needs to move fast as it's already under water. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ A choppy day actually ended up helping all positions in the portfolio. MSFT is almost at +75% and SPY at 63%.  |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142249 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/14/2018 9:50:31 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - EEM Premium of $2.6 million on 25,750 of the 4/20/18 $50 Call for $1.03 with stock at $48.62. For the second time in a week smart money loaded up on EEM. Daily chart shows all signs are a go to the $51.03 breakeven. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 55-45 and bullish order sentiment was 62%, above its 30-day average of 48%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tuesday's spotlight - WDAY, $17.3 million, 10,000, 6/15/18 $105 Call $17.30, Stock $115.41 Gained +3.50% which helped its option premium to +23%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Portfolio is finally back to its winning ways as I closed out MSFT & SPY when it hit the final target of +100%. The former accomplished it in four trading days, the latter in three.  |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #142267 - Ignore mahkoh |
2/15/2018 4:22:27 PM SINA Apr 120 Calls bought, stock at 120.75. Total premium paid 2.2 million, that's a lot for at the money options 2 months away. |
| WantingLittle 11 posts msg #142269 - Ignore WantingLittle |
2/15/2018 4:54:03 PM I know it's only been 6 weeks but so far the returns seem pretty impressive here--especially considering the storm it weathered. Any disagreement? |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142273 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/15/2018 9:44:33 PM You might have an argument from others but not from me. :-) WantingLittle 7 posts msg #142269 - Remove message 2/15/2018 4:54:03 PM I know it's only been 6 weeks but so far the returns seem pretty impressive here--especially considering the storm it weathered. Any disagreement? |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142274 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/15/2018 10:38:58 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - SINA & IWM I decided to pick two plays today since both are so audacious. IWM: Premium of $8.4 million on 20,000 of the 9/21/18 $161 Call for $4.21 with stock at $151.40. Breakeven of $165.21 is 8% from today's close of $152.80. I understand we're in an unprecedented bull market, but it's still asking a lot when assuming there might be another one or two corrections along the way. What is amazing about this play is that the total option volume Call/Put ratio was only 30-70 and bullish order sentiment was 41%, in par with its 30-day average of 42%. SINA: Premium of $2.2 million on 25,750 of the 4/20/18 $120 Call for $8.40 with stock at $120.75. Breakeven of $128.40 is 8% from today's close of $118.85. The audacity to think the stock will move 8% in two months without the help of earnings. If seasonality holds true, it will need a Herculean effort in April as March over the past 5 years has returned an avg of -3.2%. April is first in winning pct at 80% and second in avg return at 8.8%. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 62-38 and bullish order sentiment was 26%, well below its 30-day average of 64%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wednesday's spotlight - EEM, $2.6 million, 25,750, 4/20/18 $50 Call $1.03, Stock $48.62 Gained +2.05% to help its option premium to +49.51%. Barring another vicious move down, this should be another doubler. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EXEL, CARS, and INTC are almost green. SPB though is struggling and another -2% day will have it hit the stop loss of -50%. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. In the event price climbs above 50 & 70 pct target then falls below, sell then kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then finishes the day at +57%, stock would be sold at +57% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #142292 - Ignore mahkoh |
2/16/2018 3:34:22 PM Huge activity on TGT calls. A lot of 1200 contracts batches, although most are at the mid I'm leaning towards the calls being sold. Probably exercising of existing positions to capture the dividend on Tuesday. |
| 15minofPham 170 posts msg #142300 - Ignore 15minofPham |
2/16/2018 10:50:38 PM Follow the Money Play of the Day - UNP Premium of $2 million on 10,000 of the 3/16/18 $130 Put for $2.07 with stock at $134.75. It's a surprise to see Puts of this magnitude on UNP when they've been huge Calls over the past few months. It's even more of a surprise considering this has only one month to play out. Breakeven of $127.93 is 4.75% from today's close of $134.27. Somebody might know something as earnings is not until mid April. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was only 40-60 and bullish order sentiment was 16%, well below its 30-day average of 43%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thursday's spotlight - IWM, $8.4 million, 20,000, 9/21/18 $161 Call $4.21, Stock $151.40 Negligible gain didn't move option premium as it stands at +12.83%. SINA, $2.2 million, 25,750, 4/20/18 $120 Call $8.4, Stock $120.75 Fell -3.28% at resistance which made option decline to -35%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ A good start ended with a fade which prevented a couple of stocks to reach green. 
The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart. Rules: 1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium 2) Prices are end of day 3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. In the event price climbs above 50 & 70 pct target then falls below, sell then kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then finishes the day at +57%, stock would be sold at +57% 4) Loss: Sell at -50% |
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